US Dollar, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, Trader Positioning – Talking Points
- Ahead of November 3rd election, how is positioning faring in the US Dollar?
- EUR/USD may extend losses if retail traders increase upside exposure next
- AUD/USD could fall on the other hand, USD/CAD is looking more neutral
With hopes of a fresh US fiscal package now grim ahead of the November 3rd election after policymakers were unable to bridge gaps, how are retail investors positioning themselves in the US Dollar? This can be measured using IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which is typically a contrarian indicator. Below is an overview of EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD using the tool in addition to technical analysis. You may also signup for my webinar below where I discuss IGCS while also incorporating aspects of fundamental analysis.
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Nov 04
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How can trader positioning impact financial markets?
What Do Other Traders Buy/Sell Bets Say About Price Trends?
Euro Sentiment Outlook – Bearish
The IGCS gauge implies that about 30% of retail traders are net long EUR/USD. Upside exposure has increased by 3.85% and 9.19% compared to yesterday and last week respectively. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain netshort. If prices continue falling, retail investors could add upside exposure as they attempt to pick the Euro’s turning point.
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What is the road ahead for the Euro in Q4?
Euro Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD remains in a consolidative setting. This has been persisting since late July when the Euro transitioned from gradually gaining against the US Dollar and into a holding pattern. The zone of support seems to sit between 1.1612 and 1.1696 while resistance at 1.1932 to 1.2011. There seems to be a short-term rising trendline brewing since late September with immediate resistance at 1.1860.
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
Euro Chart Created in Trading View
Australian Dollar Sentiment Outlook – Bullish
The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 44% of retail investors are net long AUD/USD. Downside exposure has increased 9.95%…
Read More: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Retail Positioning