Australian Dollar rises broadly in Asian session today following much stronger than expected job data. Expectation for RBA tightening is increasing with calls for a hike as soon as in August. Canadian Dollar is also firm together with bullish strength in oil prices. As China’s rate cut is lifting sentiment, Yen and Dollar are turning softer. Euro is also weak in particular against other European majors.
Technically, while Euro is one of the worst performers for the week, sellers are not too committed yet. EUR/GBP is leading the way down by breaking 0.8322 temporary low. We’ll now first see when EUR/CHF would break through 1.0324 low to resume medium term down trend. Also, break of 1.1284 support in EUR/USD would very likely resume the medium term down trend through 1.1185 low too. These two developments, if happen together, would be rather bearish for Euro.
In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is trading up 1.48%. Hong Kong HSI is up 2.57%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.25%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.26%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0036 at 0.140. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.96%. S&P 500 dropped -0.97%. NASDAQ dropped -1.15%. 10-year yield dropped -0.038 to 1.827.
Australia unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, lowest since 2008
Australia employment grew 64.8k in December to 13.242m, well above expectation of 30.0k. Full time jobs rose 41.5k while part-time jobs rose 23.3k. Unemployment rate dropped from 4.6% to 4.2%, better than expectation of 4.5%. That’s also the lowest rate since August 2008. Participation rate was unchanged at 66.1%. Hours worked rose 1.0% or 18.2m hours.
Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said: “The latest data shows further recovery in employment following the large 366,000 increase in November. This provides an indication of the state of the labour market in the first two weeks of December, before the large increase in COVID cases later in the month.”
“This is the lowest unemployment rate since August 2008, just before the start of the Global Financial Crisis and Lehman Brothers collapse, when it was 4.0 per cent. This is also close to the lowest unemployment rate in the monthly series – February 2008 – and for a rate below 4.0 we need to look back to the 1970’s when the survey was quarterly,” Javis added.
AUD/NZD soars, setting up long term up trend?
AUD/NZD soars in response to much better than expected Australia job data, and heightened expectation of RBA rate hike this year. The strong break of 100% projection of 1.0278 to 1.0610 from 1.0314 at 1.0646 is seen as a sign of upside acceleration. Further rally is now expected as long as 1.0583 support holds. Next target is 161.8% projection at 1.0851.
The bigger question now is whether the medium term fall from 1.1042 has completed as a corrective pattern, with three waves down to 1.0278. Break above above mentioned 1.0851…