After three months of boycotting cabinet sessions, Hezbollah finally announced that it would return – with its ally, the Amal Movement – to the political table, but with the caveat of several demands.
The issues the groups are ready to discuss are the annual budget, the IMF negotiations, the economic rescue plan, and “all that concerns improving the living conditions of the Lebanese,” their joint statement said. They will not discuss and decide on the upcoming appointments, mainly the judiciary ones. That is, of course, related to their efforts to jeopardize the investigation of the Beirut Port Blast, headed by Judge Tarek Bitar.
Bitar is the reason why both organizations boycotted the government in the beginning. Their return considers three main issues, none of which is a reason to celebrate.
First, efforts by Bitar to interrogate ex-ministers have been challenged with lawsuits, while Hezbollah and Amal have accused him of politicizing the probe. Today, there are claims of a behind-the-scene deal that jeopardizes the investigation.
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Prime Minister Najib Mikati denies this, saying that no cabinet decisions will hinder Bitar’s investigation. If there is an agreement, the victims are transparency and finding justice for the victims’ families.
Although Hezbollah is blaming its allies, everybody knows that the country’s paralysis sits entirely at its own doorstep.
The fear is the realization that its support is turning on it. Hezbollah cannot afford this kind of disillusionment with the elections on the horizon.
Hezbollah also understands the need to revive its political standing to control the election process. The decision to return to cabinet discussions has little to do with the economic crisis or any desire to resolve it.
Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun heads the new government’s first cabinet meeting at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon September 13, 2021. (File photo: Reuters)
Hezbollah realizes that any risk to its majority in parliament means the possibility of losing leverage when choosing the next president of the republic.
President Michel Aoun’s mandate expires later this year. Suppose Hezbollah’s calculations indicate that the new parliament will not grant it the power of the majority. In that case, it will probably try to postpone May’s election or push to have the presidential elections sooner. The group certainly needs to influence the cabinet to make these decisions.
Another danger linked to the election preparations is implementing policies protecting and preserving the political elite. Reversing the plummeting valuation of the Lebanese Lira has seen the Central Bank’s reserves plundered.
Last week, the…
Read More: Hezbollah’s return to the government is a political trap