Russia’s sudden escalation around Ukraine has taken some by surprise, but the logic behind it may be deceptively simple: This winter could be Russia’s last chance to attack Ukraine.
Russian military forces are amassed to Ukraine’s east, north, and south, and Ukraine’s leadership is making preparations for war.
The Biden administration believes that an invasion is imminent, evacuating the U.S. embassy and readying forces to be deployed. The greatest logistical barrier to Russia’s advance is mud, and that may be frozen over before long.
If President Vladimir Putin acts he will be inviting a cavalcade of sanctions and even military resistance from the West. But he may never have a better opportunity.
The European Union is in the midst of an energy crisis, making it more dependent than ever on Russian energy exports. Ukraine is becoming more costly to invade by the day, as it builds up its defensive capabilities, and will only continue to do so with time. There are also divisions within NATO on how best to deal with the Russia-Ukraine conflict now.
The more Russia delays, the more leverage it stands to lose.
Europe is currently suffering an energy crisis, with gas prices doubling in December. The continent has experienced high prices since the end of last summer, and uncertainty over both Nord Stream 2 and Russia’s actions in Ukraine has made price hikes in the energy markets even worse. About a third of Germany’s natural gas comes from Russian pipelines, with other European nations also reliant on their eastern neighbor. Though Russia has continually insisted that it is not using its oil and natural gas as a weapon against Europe, we should naturally remain skeptical of this kind of messaging.
It is worth asking why Europe is experiencing high energy prices, especially after periods of unprecedented low energy prices. The answer is relatively straightforward: the coronavirus pandemic suppressed demand for energy consumption. Energy producers reduced their supply in order to meet reduced demand. Several European countries enacted green energy mandates and began closing coal-powered plants. Though France has leaned heavily into nuclear power, this has not been the case for other major European powers, like Germany. When energy demand bounced back and alternative sources of energy were not yet ready to fill in the gap, the price of energy skyrocketed. Old coal factories needed to be reopened, and natural gas imports rose in importance to ensure that Europe is able to keep homes warm this winter.
Russia is thus in a position of unprecedented influence over Europe’s energy markets, but that will only last for a short window. Green energy will eventually get off the ground. Solar is performing well in the continent, and the wind drought cannot last forever. Other energy producers have increased production, including the United States, to meet…
Read More: Vladimir Putin Is So Dangerous Now Because This Is His Last Chance to Seize