Russian President Vladimir Putin met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Friday as the Beijing Winter Olympics kicked off. The Kremlin described the meeting as warm and constructive, and the leaders agreed to deepen their cooperation, according to an account published by Chinese state news agency Xinhua. Russian oil giant Rosneft said it had agreed to boost supplies to China over the next decade.
Those risks may be formidable should Russia invade Ukraine. Moscow has denied that it has any intention of doing so.
China — which has its own tensions with the West — has already expressed diplomatic support for its ally. In a joint statement issued Friday after their meeting, Xi and Putin said both sides opposed “further enlargement of NATO.” Russia fears Ukraine may join the alliance.
“Xi almost certainly believes there is a strategic interest in supporting Russia,” said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the DC-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He pointed out that China “remains at permanent loggerheads” with the United States.
There is already some evidence that tensions with the West have deepened cooperation between China and Russia, according to Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow and chair of Russia in the Asia‑Pacific Program at Carnegie Moscow Center. He cited arms deals, the joint development of weapons, and an “increased number of joint drills” between the two powers.
But it’s not clear how far that would extend to deeper economic cooperation in the face of harsh sanctions. Russia depends deeply on China for trade, but that’s not the case the other way round. And the Chinese economy is already in a shaky spot, giving less incentive to Xi to tie his country’s fortunes to Moscow’s in the event of a military crisis.
“It would be a ‘win’ for Putin if Xi simply hews closely to China’s stated desire for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis, as it implies that Putin’s grievances are legitimate,” Singleton said. “Beyond that though, China may be hard pressed to truly deepen its economic ties with Russia, at least any time soon.”
Russia needs China for trade. China has other…
Read More: Why China won’t put its economy on the line to rescue Putin