STOCKS
Equities continue to trade higher. Dow and DAX still have room to move up from current levels before the expected correction happens. The US markets are closed today. Nikkei has tested its key resistances as expected and needs to see if it reverses lower from here itself or after an extended rise. Sensex and Nifty can sustain higher and consolidate sideways before seeing a fresh fall. Shanghai is closed till Wednesday this week. Overall we retain our cautious stance in equities to see a sharp correction any time although there is still room for a rise from current levels.
Dow (31458.40, +27.70, +0.09%) hovered near 31500 on Friday as well. The chances of seeing 32000 are still there. A break above 31500 will pave way for it. However we reiterate that 32000 can cap the upside. A corrective fall to 31000-30000 or even lower can be seen from there. We will be cautious as the Dow moves up from here.
DAX (14049.89, +8.98, +0.06%) oscillates around 14000. A break above 14200 can see an extended rise to 14500-14600 before a corrective fall is seen. 13800 is a good support. A break below it can trigger the expected corrective fall to 13600 and 13400-13200. Whether this fall happens from here itself or after an extended rise to 14500-14600 is not clear at the moment. Overall the index is near a top and we will be cautious to see a corrective fall.
Nikkei (29871.93, +351.86, +1.19%) has surged to test 30000 as expected. As we had mentioned last week, a corrective fall to 29000-28000 is possible from here. But in case if Nikkei breaks above 30000, an extended rise to 30500 can be seen before the expected correction happens. We will have to wait and watch the price action closely in the coming days.
Shanghai (3655.09) is closed till Wednesday on account of the Chinese New Year holidays. The Chinese markets will re-open on Thursday (18-Feb-21).
Sensex (51544.30, +12.78, +0.03%) and Nifty (15163.30, −10, -0.07%) consolidates between 51000-52000 and 15000-15250 respectively as expected. A strong rise past 52000 on the Sensex and 15250 on the Nifty is needed to negate our bearish bias of seeing a corrective fall to 50000-49000 (Sensex) and 14800-14600 (Nifty) from here. Such a break will then pave way for a rise to 53000 (Sensex) and 15400-15600 (Nifty).
COMMODITIES
Gold and Silver prices have risen but Silver looks bullish towards 29.50 while above 26 whereas Gold may have some scope of testing 1780 on the downside before moving up sharply in the medium term. Crude prices have risen and look bullish for the very near term as they also head towards resistance levels which if holds could produce a short corrective dip.
Brent (63.58) has risen well and could be headed towards 65 on the upside. WTI (60.78) has broken above our expected resistance at 60 and could rise towards 65 too in the near term. Any rejection at 65 on Brent if seen could restrict…
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