Economists expect the government’s monthly employment report to show a big jump in new jobs added in March when it is released Friday morning. The average among economists polled by Dow Jones is for a gain of 675,000 jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 6.2 percent in February to 6 percent.
“Expect a blistering hot report,” said Dan North, senior economist at Euler Hermes North America. “Demand for labor is sky high. Airlines, bars and restaurants are all opening back up. The weather has turned warm,” and economic impact checks will “provide powerful stimulus” to the economy, he said.
Some economists even predict a seven-figure jump in job gains.
“I think the potential for a surprise to the upside is quite high for the March jobs report,” said Glassdoor Senior Economist Daniel Zhao, citing the acceleration of vaccinations and a rebound from unusually harsh weather in February as two potential tailwinds.
As for the unemployment rate, which hit 14.7 percent at the height of the pandemic: “I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the unemployment rate under 6 percent,” said David Norris, head of U.S. credit and portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management.
Payroll processor ADP’s report on private-sector employment found that the economy added 517,000 jobs in March, slightly lower than the prediction of 525,000, but economists still characterized that growth as robust. Likewise, an increase in weekly initial jobless claims — rising to 719,000 from a downwardly revised 658,000 — was greater than the 675,000 expected, but failed to shake economists’ consensus that the labor market is on the right track.
ADP found that employment growth was shared roughly equally among small, medium-sized and large businesses, a sign of broad resiliency.
“It actually seems like the economy can reopen because the pandemic is getting under control.”
“Now, it actually seems like the economy can reopen because the pandemic is getting under control,” Zhao said. “We were all surprised to see the economy was much more resilient than what we expected,” he said.
While all but 80,000 of the private-sector jobs tracked by ADP were in the services sector, the hard-hit leisure and travel sector saw the biggest gains, with 169,000 new jobs added.
“A lot of the increase was driven by a nice comeback from the leisure and hospitality sector,” said Frank Fiorille, director of risk management, compliance and data analytics at payroll processing firm Paychex.
Gains in manufacturing and construction of 49,000 and 32,000 jobs, respectively, also reassured economists that the nation’s goods-producing sectors were sharing in the economic rebound, while an index that tracks small-business health also showed a rosier outlook: Although still below its pre-pandemic level, the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch saw its biggest month-over-month…
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