STOCKS
Dow is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise above 33000 and looks vulnerable for a fall from here itself without seeing an extended rise. It will have to be seen how the market reacts to the proposed increase in the US corporate tax announced along with the $2 trillion infrastructure recovery package unveiled yesterday. DAX is at the key resistance level of 15000 and is expected to reverse lower from here. Nikkei can move up within its sideways range. Shanghai is at its upper end of its range and needs to be seen if it can break it on the upside. Sensex and Nifty have come-off from their resistances as expected and can fall in the coming days as expected. Any bounce is likely to be capped at 50000-50250 (Sensex) and 14900 (Nifty).
Dow (32981.55, −85.41, -0.26%) is not getting a strong follow-through rise above 33000. A further fall from here will reduce the chances of seeing the extended rise to 33450-33500 that we had been mentioning over the last few days. In turn the expected fall to 32000-31000 can happen from here itself.
DAX (15008.34, −0.27, -0.002%) remained stable around 15000 yesterday. We retain our view of seeing a corrective fall from here to 14400 initially and then to 14000-13800 eventually in the coming weeks. As mentioned yesterday, the above mentioned fall will get negated if DAX breaks above 15050 decisively in which case we may have to allow for an extended rise to 15500-15700.
Nikkei (29531.88, +353.08, +1.21%) has risen back above 29500 and needs to see if it can sustain. We reiterate that Nikkei can remain sideways between 28000 and 30500/31000 for some time. Within this range while above 29000, a move towards the upper end of the range is possible in the near-term.
Shanghai (3456.65 +14.74, +0.43%) is hovering at the upper end of its 3330-3470 range. A pull-back from here will keep the sideways range intact. If Shanghai manages to breach 3470, a rise to 3500 is possible. However, a strong follow-through rise past 3500 is necessarily needed to completely negate the bearish view of seeing 3250-3200 on the downside.
Sensex (49509.15, −627.43, -1.25%) has come-off sharply yesterday failing to sustain above 50000. This keeps our bearish view of seeing a fall to 48000-47000 on the downside. The chances of the fall extending even upto 46000 cannot be ruled out. But thereafter we can expect a fresh rally.
The resistance at 14900 has held very well as expected and Nifty (14690.70, −154.40, -1.04%) has come-off sharply yesterday. A further fall to 14400-14200 is possible on a break below 14400. Our broader bearish view of seeing 14000-13800 remains intact. The fall can extend even up to 13600 before we get a strong bounce.
COMMODITIES
Commodities see some corrective upmoves today. Crude prices have risen a bit but overall look ranged for the near term within 65-60 on Brent and 57-63 on WTI. Gold ahs…
Read More: Market Morning Briefing: Aussie Looks Stable