Leveraged traders have not materialized in the market to take bitcoin over the $40,000 hump. Meanwhile, ether is continuing to steal trading volume from BTC during a steady price rise toward $2,900.
- Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $38,532 as of 21:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Gaining 1.7% over the previous 24 hours.
- Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $37,311-$39,402 (CoinDesk 20)
- Ether (ETH) trading around $2,789 as of 21:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). In the green 1.1% over the previous 24 hours.
- Ether’s 24-hour range: $2,673-$2,882 (CoinDesk 20)
Bitcoin swaps stay steady
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, was up Thursday by 1.7% as of press time. It was below the 10-hour moving average but above the 50-hour, a flat signal for market technicians.
BTC’s price jumped from $37,311 at 05:15 UTC (10:15 p.m. ET Wednesday) to $39,402 by 13:30 UTC (6:30 a.m. ET) Thursday, a 5.6% gain based on CoinDesk 20 data. Bitcoin then settled somewhat, at $38,532 as of press time.
“We expect spot bitcoin to trade in a range short term with a slight bullish bias as frenzied leveraged longs have been washed out,” noted quant trading firm QCP Capital in its most recent investor note. “We’ve seen significant buying and selling at $30,000 and $40,000 levels, respectively.”
According to data aggregator Skew, the cost of perpetual swaps, which is liquidity provided to leveraged traders, has consistently hovered near zero (0%) since May 26.
It’s a sign many traders aren’t piling up leverage to go directional either way because the funding rates will pop or fall based on bull or bear orientation.
“BTC tried to break $40,000 to break out of the $30,000-$40,000 range that we’ve been stuck in after the mid-May crash,” said Elie Le Rest, a partner at quantitative trading firm ExoAlpha. “So the $40,000 line seems to be breakable as market participants are regaining confidence after the big crash two weeks ago.”
On May 23, bitcoin hit a three month low of $34,259, while ether dipped to $2,080 that day.
BTC volatility rising, ETH takes a breather
Thirty-day volatilities in BTC (46%) and ETH (68%) have picked back up after having dipped to 2021 lows on April 15. Ether’s 30-day volume, for instance, went to a whopping 175% Tuesday before slipping while bitcoin’s seems to keep rising, at 92% as of Wednesday’s closing data.
“We are still cautious of a potential BTC downside as the volatility skew remains high with puts being substantially more expensive than calls,” QCP Capital noted Thursday. “We reckon that downside vols are a decent sell.”
Read More: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Fails Test of $40K While Ether Loses Steam Near $2.9K