Updated advice from the Doherty Institute, emphasising “caution” in lifting public health restrictions once 70% of the population over the age of 16 is vaccinated, will be presented to national cabinet on Friday.
Guardian Australia understands the update, to be considered by leaders, suggests that coronavirus epidemics will continue to happen locally, and, increasingly, in under-vaccinated pockets of the Australian community, even when national vaccination rates are higher than 70%.
The expert epidemiological modelling underpins a four-phase plan for Australia to reopen once vaccination rates increase. Leaders will meet virtually again on Friday afternoon after a week of robust community debate about the safety of a national reopening plan.
Scott Morrison has spent the parliamentary sitting week attempting to build political momentum for easing restrictions. He’s declared the strategy “the safe plan to ensure that Australia can open up again with confidence”.
But some state and territory leaders have pushed back vigorously against pre-emptive easing given Delta infections continue to rise, particularly among unvaccinated young people. The current national vaccination targets exclude people under the age of 16.
New South Wales on Thursday reported a new daily record of 1,029 coronavirus cases while Victoria reported 80, with half those cases in the community while infectious. The Australian Capital Territory reported 14.
The NSW chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant, acknowledged infections in Australia’s most populous state “may well go way above a thousand cases”.
On Thursday evening, the Morrison government was due to adopt final advice from the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation green-lighting vaccinations for 12 to 15-year-olds. Once supplies of Pfizer and Moderna allows, jabs will be given concurrently with adults, initially by general practitioners.
Friday’s national cabinet meeting will discuss the looming rollout of vaccines to children and teenagers, consider the updated Doherty advice, and also consider the first cut of work that the governments of Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have prepared detailing options on how restrictions can be eased for vaccinated Australians once rates hit 70%.
Some states want children under 16 included formally in the vaccination targets in the four-phase reopening plan. But Morrison said on Thursday, given Australia was administering 1.8m doses in a week, the current rollout had the capacity to vaccinate 12 to 15-year-olds “in parallel” with the population aged 16 and over.
While claiming that 12 to 15-year-olds can expect to be vaccinated “in the weeks and months ahead”, Morrison has so far declined to specify a precise timetable for the rollout for teenagers.
On Thursday Labor’s…
Read More: Doherty Institute urges ‘caution’ in lifting Australia’s Covid restrictions